By Shaista Bahar 

The 2025 aerial confrontation between Pakistan and India has emerged as a defining moment in South Asian military history. Aviation analyst Alan Warnes, in his detailed analysis for Key.Aero magazine, explains how the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) executed a highly coordinated, multi-domain campaign that decisively outmatched the Indian Air Force (IAF), including the downing of multiple Rafale fighters.

Speaking to Warnes, a senior PAF officer described the opening phase of the battle in stark terms: “We ambushed them. We trapped them in our kill chain and created chaos.” He explained that the outcome was swift and overwhelming: “Fifty-two minutes after the air war had started, the fight was over, we won and they headed home.”

What distinguished the PAF operation was not only its lethality but also its restraint. Despite gaining a clear advantage, Pakistan deliberately avoided escalation. As the officer told Warnes, “We could have shot down more Rafales than we did, but we held back. An escalation could have led to all-out war between two nuclear nations.” This discipline underscored Pakistan’s strategic maturity, proving that air power was exercised with control rather than recklessness.

Warnes details how Pakistan’s integration of space, cyber, electronic warfare, and kinetic operations gave it dominance in the skies. Using indigenous satellites and secure SATCOM, PAF pilots gained unmatched situational awareness. According to the officer, “No one infringes Pakistani sovereign territory – we are entrusted to protect it.” When Indian aircraft crossed into hostile action, the command was unambiguous: “Kill them, kill them, don’t let them enter even an inch into Pakistan.”

During the engagement, Pakistani forces targeted Indian strike packages with precision, moving decisively against formations of Rafales, Su-30MKIs, and Mirage 2000s. Through advanced electronic intelligence and radar integration, the PAF identified and neutralized high-value assets. As Warnes reports, Pakistani operators even intercepted IAF communications, hearing formations in panic after discovering missing aircraft.

The article further underscores Pakistan’s intelligence edge. Warnes writes that “every Indian base could be monitored, every aircraft from the moment of lift-off… There are Pakistani eyes everywhere,” adding that during his time with the PAF it was clear “there was nothing the PAF didn’t know about the IAF.” This dominance allowed the PAF to tap into Rafale communications, identify 14 Rafales among 72 Indian aircraft, and even disable India’s northern command-and-control node at Barnala, severing coordination between IAF leadership and its fighters.

Despite having those 14 Rafales within their engagement envelope, Pakistani commanders chose restraint. As Warnes documents, the PAF confirmed multiple kills by tail number yet deliberately avoided pursuing further targets deep inside India, recognizing that striking beyond that point “could start an all-out war.” In other words, Pakistan could have shot down more, but consciously limited the fight.
Central to Pakistan’s success was its disciplined operational doctrine. Explaining how the battle was managed, the officer stated: “Our strategy was to have force concentration in our selected AORs and fight to our own strength.” Once Indian aircraft released their weapons, Pakistan shifted from deterrence to decisive engagement, focusing specifically on Rafales because, as he noted, “the IAF had always said they would make ‘the difference’.”

Warnes also highlights the decisive role of the J-10C, noting that No. 15 “Cobras” Squadron “played a massive part in defeating India’s ambitions,” even though many pilots had logged only 100–120 hours on the new jet. Incredibly, Pakistani pilots trained in Chengdu flew just “two to three hours” before ferrying the aircraft home, yet the PAF made the J-10C fully operational within months—far faster than India’s Rafale induction—demonstrating exceptional adaptability, sensor mastery, and tactical integration.

Warnes further highlights Pakistan’s advanced verification processes, including its “ID Matrix” and “Radar Knitting” systems, which ensure precision, accountability, and post-mission confirmation of kills. This methodical approach reinforced the credibility of Pakistan’s claims and demonstrated the PAF’s transition into a fully network-centric, multi-domain combat force.

The article also revisits India’s long-standing claim of having shot down a Pakistani F-16 in 2019. Warnes states bluntly that this was “simply untrue,” noting that he personally inspected the wreckage of the downed Indian MiG-21 and that “the US government also denied a F-16 had been lost.” This earlier episode, he argues, contrasts sharply with the PAF’s rigorous verification system, which underpins the credibility of Pakistan’s 2025 air combat claims.

Beyond tactics and technology, the battle signaled a broader strategic message. Pakistan showed that modern air power is no longer defined by sheer numbers but by integration, innovation, and professional discipline. As Warnes concludes, the 2025 conflict validated Pakistan’s doctrine of restrained dominance—a force capable of winning decisively while avoiding catastrophic escalation.

With at least seven Indian aircraft neutralized, including four advanced Rafales, and Pakistan deliberately choosing not to press further, the episode stands as a landmark in regional military history. Together, these details reinforce Warnes’ central conclusion: Pakistan’s victory was not accidental. It was the product of rapid J-10C integration, total battlespace awareness of Indian bases and aircraft, disciplined restraint despite clear tactical superiority, and a verification system that turned air combat into a transparent, accountable, and professionally executed campaign.

In the skies over South Asia, mastery belongs not to size alone, but to preparation, precision, and strategic resolve.

* The writer is a Bangkok-based analyst who writes on regional political and security affairs.