Volatile situation in Middle East, change of administration in US, and China's security concerns will be key challenges for Islamabad’s foreign policy 

By Aamir Latif 

PAKISTAN (AA) - The volatile situation in the Middle East, change of administration in the US, and a “do more” demand from longtime ally China, will be the key challenges for Pakistan’s foreign policy in 2025, experts reckon.

Although, according to them, Islamabad’s core relations with the two allies - the US and China - have taken a hit from Washington’s pullout from neighboring Afghanistan and a string of attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, the South Asian nuclear country still embodies the importance on the global diplomatic landscape due to recent changes in the Middle East and Beijing’s “geographical compulsions.”

“There is no doubt that Pakistan’s importance for the US has receded due to the latter’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, but Islamabad still has relevance to Washington’s foreign policy,” said Ishtiaq Ahmad, an Islamabad-based expert on international relations.

Washington, earlier this month, slapped sanctions on four Pakistani entities that allegedly contributed to Islamabad’s long-range ballistic missile program. The move angered Islamabad, which termed it “biased”, and “unjustified.”

Speaking to Anadolu, Ahmad observed that government-to-government ties between the two allies will remain “a bit frosty” in the coming year but the military-to-military relationship will be “as it is due to their lingering collaboration in the Middle East.”

“Pakistan has been one of the guarantors for the security of several Gulf regimes, and it will continue to play that role as a US ally,” he opined.  

'Regime change in Iran'

“We are likely to see the current Middle East conflict extend its frontiers to West Asia with the Israelis using their current military superiority to attempt a regime change in Iran with the support of the Trump administration," he further said.

Pakistan, he went on to say, enjoys close defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia. This coordination will increase in the event of any military action against Iran, renewing Islamabad's strategic significance in the eyes of Washington in the process.

Asif Durrani, a former Pakistani ambassador, however believes that Islamabad would continue to maintain its longstanding neutrality in the Middle East.

"This has been the hallmark of Pakistan's policy that if there are disputes among the Muslim states, we should try, in fact, to mediate rather than taking sides, because taking sides would be more harmful than maintaining a neutrality," Durrani told Anadolu citing Islamabad's neutral position on Saudi-led war in Yemen.

Citing recent mediation by China between Iran and Saudi Arabia, both Tehran and Riyadh will "hopefully" make common causes for the greater interest of the Middle East.  

Relations with US will remain 'transactional'

Abdul Basit, a former Pakistani ambassador, however, believes that the nature of the relationship between Pakistan and the US would remain transactional no matter who is in the White House.

"Pakistan-US relations have lost their erstwhile luster for a slew of reasons, mainly the simmering Middle East crisis, and pullout from Afghanistan," Basit told Anadolu, referring to a common perception that Middle East conflict will take the center stage in Washington's foreign policy in 2025.

To a certain extent, Basit, whose last assignment was as Pakistan's High Commissioner to India, observed that Pak-US relations will also hinge on how US-China relations go during Donald Trump's tenure.

Pakistan's longtime rival India, according to Basit, will likely have more space to leverage Trump against Islamabad.

"Pakistani diaspora in the US may also be playing some role in building pressure on Islamabad on the issue of Imran Khan," he went on to say, referring to ongoing lobbying by some Pakistani Americans for the release of the incarcerated former prime minister who has been languishing in a jail in the northeastern garrison city of Rawalpindi in multiple cases.

According to Basit, Trump may reach out to the Taliban government, which would create additional pressure on Pakistan.  

‘All-weather friends’

Longstanding close ties between Beijing and Islamabad saw an unprecedented moment in November when the two “all-weather” friends publicly discussed the security of Chinese nationals in Pakistan, following a string of attacks.

Sharing a similar view, Durrani, who also served as Pakistan's former special representative for Afghanistan, said that strategic and economic cooperation with China will remain the cornerstone of Islamabad's foreign policy, considering the latest developments in the Middle East and Washington's comparatively lessening interest in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"Both China and the US are very important to Pakistan. Both have had substantive relationships with Pakistan, although Washington has been a transactional friend," Durrani told Anadolu.

Whenever there was a crisis, Pakistan became a frontline state. The same happened after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. However, once the crisis was over, the American interests would lessen so Pakistan's importance also decreased, he noted.

But, he added, China has always been a "constant friend."

"And we in any case, if we have to choose between the US and China, I think it is so obvious that Pakistan will choose China," he maintained.  

'Change of government in Bangladesh is great opportunity'

Abdul Basit, who served as a diplomat from 1982 to 2017, described the change of government in Bangladesh as a "great opportunity" for both countries to "start afresh forgiving and forgetting."

Formerly known as East Pakistan, Bangladesh came into being following a months-long civil war, and war between Pakistan and India in December 1971.

Ties between the two sides remained generally frosty but plummeted to a new low during the 15-year rule of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

"Pakistan must not look at its relations with Bangladesh through the Indian lens. We are on the right track moving slowly but steadily," Basit said.

Endorsing the view, Ahmad, the Islamabad-based analyst, said that the change of an "extremely" anti-Pakistan regime in Bangladesh is a "great relief" for Pakistan, which already has strained relations with India and Afghanistan.

"From a diplomatic point of view, it was the biggest gift for Pakistan in 2024."

"Development of diplomatic and economic ties with Bangladesh should be Pakistan's resolve," maintained Ahmad.