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Trade Suspension Hits Kabul Harder Than Islamabad

By The South Asia Times

ISLAMABAD/Kabul - Contrary to widespread perception, the suspension of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan for nearly two-and-a-half months has inflicted a far heavier economic blow on Kabul than Islamabad, exposing the uneven cost of prolonged border closures amid deteriorating relations between the two neighbours.

Trade ties were disrupted following border clashes on October 11 and rising tensions over Islamabad’s demand that Kabul curb cross-border attacks by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Although a temporary ceasefire followed talks in Doha and Istanbul, mediated by Turkiye and Qatar, negotiations collapsed on November 7, after which Afghanistan formally suspended trade. Pakistan had already closed key crossings, according to Daily Dawn report.

Trade data shows Afghanistan has suffered export losses of nearly 10% since October 10, 2025, compared with just 0.6% for Pakistan -- a stark imbalance reflecting Kabul’s heavy dependence on the Pakistani market. Nearly 46% of Afghanistan’s exports are destined for Pakistan, many routed onward to India via the Wagah border, while Afghanistan accounts for only 3.46% of Pakistan’s total exports.

Fruits and vegetables, which make up over 70% of Afghanistan’s exports, have been particularly affected, with limited alternative markets available. While Kabul may divert some imports toward Iran and Central Asia, replacing Pakistan as an export outlet remains a challenge.

Pakistan’s exporters have also taken a hit, especially in cement, pharmaceuticals, and rice — key items shipped through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Torkham crossing. Industry representatives warn that prolonged disruption risks permanent loss of market share as Afghan importers increasingly turn to suppliers in Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkiye.

Economists caution that supply-chain disruptions have lasting consequences. Once trust and logistics networks are broken, regaining access becomes difficult even after borders reopen.

As political tensions persist and hostile rhetoric dominates social media, analysts warn that the real cost of the standoff may be borne by ordinary traders, farmers, and workers on both sides — particularly in Afghanistan, where livelihoods remain deeply tied to cross-border commerce