By Sara Nazir

Pakistan has urged the international community to recognize water insecurity as a systemic and escalating global security risk rather than a purely environmental or developmental concern. Speaking at a United Nations roundtable, Pakistan’s Envoy Usman Jadoon emphasized that disruptions in transboundary river systems, particularly the Indus Basin, have direct implications for regional peace and stability. From a security studies perspective, water scarcity constitutes a non-traditional security threat, where environmental stressors interact with political tensions to increase the likelihood of conflict.

The Indus Basin and the Concept of Human Security

The Indus River system is central to Pakistan’s human security, a concept that shifts the focus of security from the state alone to the well-being of populations. Nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus Basin, while more than 240 million people rely on it for food, employment, and economic survival. As a lower riparian state, Pakistan faces structural vulnerability to upstream actions. Any disruption in water flows directly threatens food security, livelihoods, and social stability, thereby linking environmental insecurity to internal security challenges.

Realism and the Risks of Power Asymmetry

From a realist perspective in international relations, transboundary water disputes reflect underlying power asymmetries between states. Upper riparian states possess material and geographic advantages that can be converted into strategic leverage. Pakistan’s concern over India’s suspension of cooperative mechanisms under the Indus Waters Treaty stems from this imbalance. When stronger states act unilaterally, weaker downstream states face heightened insecurity. Such dynamics reinforce Pakistan’s argument that water governance must be insulated from power politics and governed by binding legal frameworks.

Institutionalism and the Erosion of the Indus Waters Treaty

Liberal institutionalist theory emphasizes the role of international institutions and treaties in reducing uncertainty and managing conflict. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has long served this function by providing dispute resolution mechanisms and clear rules for water sharing. Pakistan argues that undermining these mechanisms weakens not only bilateral cooperation but also confidence in international institutions more broadly. If compliance with treaties becomes optional, the ability of institutions to mitigate conflict is severely diminished.

Water Scarcity as a Non-Traditional Security Threat

Contemporary security theory increasingly recognizes that threats to stability are not limited to military aggression. Water scarcity can intensify food inflation, increase unemployment in agrarian economies, and drive rural-to-urban migration. In Pakistan, these pressures risk exacerbating socioeconomic inequalities and social unrest. The linkage between environmental stress and internal instability demonstrates how water insecurity functions as a multiplier of existing vulnerabilities within the state.

Climate Change, Environmental Security, and Downstream Exposure

Environmental security theory highlights how climate change amplifies resource scarcity and conflict potential. Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to climate-induced water variability, despite its minimal contribution to global emissions. Glacial melt, erratic monsoon cycles, and extreme flooding have destabilized the natural flow of the Indus system. In such conditions, reduced transboundary cooperation further compounds downstream vulnerability and increases the risk of humanitarian crises with security implications.

Pakistan’s Appeal for Cooperative Security

Drawing on the concept of cooperative security, Pakistan has called for collective international responsibility in managing shared water resources. Islamabad has urged the 2026 UN Water Conference to strengthen transboundary water governance, protect downstream communities, and integrate water security into the broader global peace agenda. Cooperative security frameworks emphasize dialogue, transparency, and mutual restraint as essential tools for preventing conflict over shared resources.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s position reflects a growing consensus in security studies that environmental stress can undermine both state and human security if left unmanaged. The Indus Basin is not only Pakistan’s lifeline but also a critical test of international norms governing shared natural resources. By framing water insecurity through established security theories, Pakistan underscores that sustainable peace in South Asia depends on adherence to international law, institutional cooperation, and recognition of water as a shared and securitized resource requiring collective management.