By The South Asia Times

ISLAMABAD -  Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have deteriorated significantly amid a sharp rise in militant violence across Pakistan, raising alarm among security officials, traders, and regional observers.

According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), March 2025 marked the deadliest month in years, with 105 militant attacks recorded across the country—the highest monthly toll since November 2014. These attacks claimed 228 lives, including 73 security personnel, 67 civilians, and 88 militants. An additional 258 people were injured, equally divided between security forces and civilians.

The surge in violence has reignited concerns over cross-border militancy, particularly following the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in August 2021. Since then, Pakistani authorities have repeatedly expressed frustration over the alleged presence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant factions operating from Afghan soil—an accusation the Taliban-led Afghan government has denied.

“The growing threat from across the border has put immense pressure on our security forces,” a senior Pakistani security official told The South Asia Times on condition of anonymity. “We are dealing with an emboldened insurgency, and we need regional cooperation to contain it.”

The escalating violence has also begun to impact economic ties between the two countries. Bilateral trade, once considered a vital link between Islamabad and Kabul, has suffered amid increasing border restrictions, frequent closures, and deteriorating trust. In 2024 the bilateral trade between two countries remained  $141.18 million, reflecting the fallout of heightened political and security tensions.

Traders on both sides of the border report growing losses, disrupted supply chains, and uncertainty surrounding future commerce. “We are suffering because of the politics,” said a trader from the Torkham border area. “Goods are stuck, delays are frequent, and security checks are harsher than ever.”

Analysts warn that without renewed diplomatic engagement and concrete steps to curb militancy, both countries risk sliding into deeper conflict—undermining not only their security but also their fragile economies.

“The region cannot afford another prolonged standoff,” said Zahid Shah, a regional affairs expert based in Islamabad. “Trust, dialogue, and effective border management are the need of the hour.”

Despite growing international calls for cooperation, the path forward remains unclear as both Islamabad and Kabul struggle with internal pressures and a deepening mistrust of each other’s intentions.