By Sara Nazir

The situation in Manipur has escalated, transforming from a localized ethnic conflict into a regional geopolitical crisis with potentially catastrophic implications for India’s national security. What started as violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities now threatens to destabilize the region in ways that could compromise India’s military preparedness and its ability to maintain security along critical borders. If left unchecked, this crisis could force the Indian Army into an overstretched position, disrupting its response capabilities on multiple fronts. By applying the Time-Space-Relative Strength (TSR) matrix, it’s clear that India’s military readiness is at risk, and the consequences of delay are high.

The Geopolitical Significance of Manipur: A Strategic Pressure Point

Manipur is not just another state in India—it’s a strategic pressure point in the heart of South Asia. Located at the intersection of India, Myanmar, and close to China’s border with Tibet, Manipur holds immense importance for India's security and diplomatic posture. As part of India’s broader “Act East” policy, which aims to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia, the region must remain stable to safeguard trade routes, regional influence, and security coordination.
However, Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar, already embroiled in its own internal conflict, presents unique challenges. Myanmar’s political instability and growing ties with China threaten to destabilize the region further, pushing India into a defensive position. But the immediate crisis in Manipur is not only a matter of ethnic violence—it's a military vulnerability waiting to be exploited by external powers.

The TSR Matrix: How the Conflict Is Weakening India's Military Strength

Time: The Urgency of Response

The temporal aspect of the TSR matrix is where the crisis in Manipur becomes most critical. Time is running out for India to act. As insurgent groups grow in sophistication, armed with advanced weaponry, the Indian Army’s ability to respond effectively becomes increasingly limited. The longer the conflict lingers, the more entrenched and organized these insurgent groups become, making them harder to neutralize.

India’s military has a history of late responses to regional crises, which has been detrimental to its overall strategic posture. The insurgency in Manipur, if left unresolved, would force India to deploy significant resources to the region. This would distract India’s military from other critical border areas—particularly Kashmir and the India-China border. Deploying forces to Manipur would reduce India’s ability to maintain a rapid response capacity along its western and northern borders, potentially opening the door for adversarial nations like Pakistan and China to capitalize on India’s military distraction.

Space: The Strain on India's Strategic Position

The spatial element of the TSR matrix highlights just how stretched India’s military resources will become if the situation in Manipur deteriorates further. The Indian Army already has a formidable task in maintaining security along its northern and western borders, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir and in the Himalayan region where China poses a growing challenge.

If the Indian Army is forced to commit substantial resources to Manipur, it would divert manpower and equipment from other sensitive regions. This poses a significant strategic risk. Manipur’s position at the crossroads of India, Myanmar, and China makes it a potential flashpoint where external actors could weaken India’s position. China’s growing influence in Myanmar, and its strategic interest in the region, could easily turn the crisis into a proxy conflict that further drains India’s military capabilities.

Relative Strength: A Weakening Military Posture

When we look at relative strength, the gap between the Indian Army’s capabilities and the increasing firepower of insurgent groups becomes glaring. The insurgents in Manipur—many of whom have cross-border support from ethnic militias in Myanmar—are no longer fighting with basic arms. They now possess military-grade weaponry, explosives, and advanced firearms that threaten India’s security forces, especially the Assam Rifles, which are tasked with securing the border.
The Indian Army’s relative strength in Manipur is diminishing. Outdated equipment, insufficient modernization, and low morale among younger officers are contributing to India’s weakening military position. India’s lack of rapid military modernization, coupled with a poor record of timely responses, has already undermined its ability to act decisively in past crises. If this trend continues, India may struggle to regain control of the region.
Adding to this is the low morale of many younger officers, who feel increasingly disconnected from the broader mission of India’s military. With morale low and equipment outdated, the Indian Army's operational capacity is compromised. As the insurgents in Manipur grow stronger, India's military finds itself on the back foot, struggling to mount an effective counterinsurgency effort.

The External Forces: Myanmar and China’s Strategic Maneuvering

The external dimension of the TSR matrix is where the true threat to India’s military readiness lies. If the situation in Manipur remains unresolved, external actors like China and Myanmar could exploit the region’s instability to undermine India’s security.

Myanmar, under its military junta, has historically used insurgents along the border as leverage. These groups, with ties to ethnic communities in Manipur, could increasingly be used as proxy forces by Myanmar to destabilize the region. Myanmar may see the growing insurgency in Manipur as an opportunity to exert control over the region and challenge India’s influence in Southeast Asia.

The real threat, however, is China. Beijing has made significant inroads into Myanmar, with infrastructure projects and growing military cooperation. China’s influence over Myanmar’s military establishment could give Beijing the ability to fuel instability in Manipur, either through direct support to insurgents or by encouraging Myanmar’s military to escalate tensions. China’s goal could be to divert India’s attention from the India-China border and Kashmir—regions where China has its own long-standing territorial ambitions. If the Indian Army is forced to deploy heavily to Manipur, India could find its military stretched too thin to defend its northern and western borders, making it easier for China to achieve its geostrategic goals in the region.

The Domino Effect: India’s Military Overstretch

The crisis in Manipur doesn’t just put the region at risk—it has the potential to stretch India’s military to the breaking point. If the Indian Army is diverted to the Northeast, resources will inevitably be pulled from other critical frontiers. India’s border with China in the Himalayas, and its ongoing security challenges in Kashmir, will be left vulnerable. At the same time, neighboring states could take advantage of India’s military overstretch. If Pakistan, China, or other regional powers perceive a weakened India, they may attempt to capitalize on this moment of distraction to pursue their own strategic interests at India’s expense.

Manipur is no longer just an internal conflict—it is a geopolitical flashpoint that could reshape India’s military posture across its borders. The TSR matrix shows that time, space, and relative strength are all shifting against India. The Indian Army’s inability to respond quickly, coupled with its outdated equipment and low morale among young officers, leaves it vulnerable to external pressures from China and Myanmar.

India must act swiftly to neutralize the insurgency in Manipur, modernize its military, and secure its borders before the situation spirals out of control. If the crisis is allowed to fester, India could find itself facing a military crisis on multiple fronts, weakening its position both domestically and geopolitically. The window of opportunity is closing fast, and India’s response in the coming months will determine whether it retains its strategic autonomy in a region increasingly shaped by external actors.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the writer's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of The South Asia Times