By Manahil Jaffer

India’s rise is often celebrated as a success story, a nation destined to become a global powerhouse. But there’s more to the story than meets the eye. While its economy grows and its influence expands, serious issues remain unaddressed. Economic inequality, internal divisions, and a shift toward nationalism all point to a future less certain than the one promised by its projections. India’s path forward is filled with contradictions that threatens its ambitions if left unaddressed. As the saying goes, "All that glitters is not gold."

India's economy may be growing, with projections of a 6.3% GDP growth for 2024, but this growth doesn’t reflect progress at the grassroots level. Wealth remains concentrated in the hands of the top 1%, who control over 40% of the country's resources. This stark divide mirrors some of the world's most unequal economies. India’s Gini coefficient, between 0.35 and 0.38, is much higher than more balanced countries like France (0.29) and Germany (0.31). These disparities pose serious risks to social stability and economic security, undermining the narrative of India as an emerging economic powerhouse.
Since 2014, Prime Minister Modi has promoted a form of Hindu nationalism through his party, the BJP, that has reshaped India’s political and cultural landscape.

This shift, focused on Hindutva, has alienated minorities and threatens the country’s democratic foundations. Once proudly labeled the "world’s largest democracy," India now sits in the "Warning" category on the 2024 Fragile States Index, ranking 75th. The 2023 U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom and Genocide Watch have both raised alarms over the increasing risks to minority communities under Modi’s rule.

Alongside this ideological shift, India has seen a worrying erosion of freedoms. The government's "Digital India" laws have been criticized for suppressing dissent, with 134 violations of journalists' and activists' rights reported in early 2024. The BJP’s IT cell, led by Anil Kumar, has been accused of silencing independent voices while pushing pro-Modi narratives. The World Economic Forum identified misinformation as India’s top threat, highlighting the chilling impact this has on democratic discourse.

On the geopolitical front, India’s aggressive stance toward its neighbors has complicated regional relations. The revocation of Article 370 in 2019 escalated the Kashmir conflict, intensifying tensions with Pakistan and deepening international divides. Modi’s handling of Kashmir has drawn criticism even within India, with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi calling it an “abuse of power.” Meanwhile, tensions with China over border issues, including India’s tunnel construction in Arunachal Pradesh, add further strain to already fragile relations. Disputes with Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh over territorial claims reflect the volatility of India’s regional approach. This strategy risks isolating India and weakening its position as a potential unifying force in South Asia.
Internally, India faces pressures that threaten to fracture its own unity. The ideological shift toward Hindutva intensifies long-standing ethnic, religious, and linguistic divides. The USCIRF has highlighted Modi’s intensified campaign against religious minorities, a campaign brought to international attention by the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada and the conspiracy targeting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the United States. Besides the Sikh community, separatist movements in Northeast India—encompassing regions like Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, and Nagaland—demonstrate the widespread nature of these grievances. In the South, leaders like M.K. Stalin of Tamil Nadu openly advocate for a Dravidian identity, underscoring a North-South divide that threatens the cohesion of the Indian state. A Bloomberg analysis cautions that India’s internal disparities may lead to an existential crisis, with a potential for disintegration if these tensions remain unaddressed.

As the global order evolves, India’s balancing act on the geopolitical front is growing more precarious. Historically celebrated for its non-aligned stance, India’s refusal to engage decisively with Western-led democratic alliances poses a unique challenge. India’s strategic posture, rooted in an ambiguous “strategic autonomy,” leaves it adrift between alliances. In an era where ideological coherence underpins global coalitions, India’s ambiguous stance on critical issues—like its non-alignment during the Russia-Ukraine conflict—has led Western nations to question India’s reliability as a democratic ally, particularly in countering China’s influence in the region. India’s economic ties with China, combined with its strategic ambivalence, undermine its aspirations as a counterweight to Beijing.

Becoming a great power requires both tangible and intangible qualities that are often intertwined yet distinct. Tangible factors, such as economic size, military strength, and population, are essential for establishing a country as a global power. A strong economy, supported by robust industries, a capable military with regional reach, and a sizable population, provide the physical and strategic foundation for a nation’s power. However, just as crucial is the intangible element of "status"—the perception by other great powers and the broader international community of a nation's role and influence. This status is earned not solely through material capabilities but also through diplomatic weight, cultural appeal, and recognition by other powerful nations.

India, despite its impressive economic growth, burgeoning population, and nuclear capabilities, falls short in both areas. Economically, India’s rapid growth might position it as a significant player, but its internal disparities and poverty levels prevent it from reaching high-income status. Militarily, India struggles with weaknesses in its armed forces, particularly in air and naval power, while its regional influence remains limited compared to other major powers. More importantly, India faces a challenge in its quest for status. While its cultural exports like Bollywood contribute to its soft power, it lacks the consistent diplomatic cohesion and strategic alliances that great powers maintain. India's foreign policy, rooted in non-alignment and realpolitik, often keeps it from fully engaging in key global disputes, further hindering its recognition as a global leader. Thus, India lacks the comprehensive tangible power and the intangible status necessary to fully claim its place among the world’s great powers.

The road to 2047, the centenary of India’s independence, appears fraught with contradictions and unresolved challenges. The socio-political fractures that have intensified under the current administration suggest that India’s journey may be as complex as its ambitions are grand. In a world where power and cohesion are intrinsically linked, India’s push for global stature may ultimately be constrained by its own fragmented reality

*Opinions expressed in this article are the writer's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of The South Asia Times