By Our Correspondent 

NEW DELHI -  Just hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Bangladesh's incoming leadership and expressed hope for stronger ties, the country's victorious Bangladesh Nationalist Party delivered an unexpected diplomatic blow -- formally announcing it will seek the extradition of ousted former premier Sheikh Hasina from India.

The demand, confirmed Friday by BNP official Salahuddin Ahmed, immediately transforms what New Delhi had hoped would be a conciliatory new chapter into a potential diplomatic crisis.

Modi had taken to social media earlier in the day with what Indian officials believed was a carefully calibrated message of warmth toward BNP chief Tarique Rahman, who is set to become prime minister following the party's landslide parliamentary victory.

"I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a decisive victory," Modi posted on X, adding that India would "continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh" . In a subsequent telephone call, Modi conveyed "best wishes and support" for Rahman's efforts to fulfill the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people .

But within hours, any optimism in New Delhi about a smooth reset was shattered.

The BNP's extradition demand directly challenges India on an issue where Modi's government has shown no willingness to compromise. Hasina, 78, fled to India in August 2024 after mass protests ended her 15-year authoritarian rule. A special tribunal in Dhaka later sentenced her to death in absentia for "crimes against humanity" during the student-led uprising.

Senior BNP figures have long framed Hasina's presence in India as a "sovereignty issue" that must be resolved for bilateral ties to move forward.

- India is not a trustworthy friend 

The demand reflects deeper shifts in Bangladeshi public sentiment that analysts say will constrain any new government in Dhaka from pursuing close ties with New Delhi.

"India is not a trustworthy friend," Dhaka-based analyst Shafiq Rehman told the South Asia Times. Bangladeshi people would not want any government to get close to India. The new BNP government will have to take extra care -- the public mood is firmly against any perception of being under New Delhi's influence."

This represents a dramatic reversal from the Hasina era, when India enjoyed privileged access, and the Awami League leader was often described in New Delhi as India's "best friend in the neighborhood." Her government cooperated closely with India on security, trade, and connectivity projects.

The BNP's historical baggage with India runs deep. The party was founded by the late President Ziaur Rahman, and his widow Khaleda Zia -- Tarique Rahman's mother -- served as prime minister with policies often viewed in New Delhi as tilting toward Pakistan and China.

- Shifting alliances - Dhaka's pivot toward Islamabad 

Signs of Bangladesh's strategic reorientation have been accumulating for months, suggesting the BNP's return to power will accelerate a regional realignment.

Most significantly, Bangladesh Air Force Chief Hasan Mahmood Khan visited Pakistan in January for detailed discussions on military cooperation. According to Pakistan's state-run Radio Pakistan, Khan expressed interest in "benefiting from Pakistan Air Force's operational expertise" and sought assistance with maintenance support for Bangladesh's aging fleet.

Crucially, the discussions included "potential procurement of JF-17 Thunder aircraft" -- a joint Pakistan-China fighter jet that would mark a major defense procurement shift away from Bangladesh's traditional reliance on Russian and Chinese equipment. Pakistan also assured "fast-tracked delivery of Super Mushshak trainer aircraft" to Bangladesh.

The military-to-military engagement reflects warming ties between Dhaka and Islamabad that began under the interim government following Hasina's ouster. For Pakistan, courting Bangladesh offers an opportunity to regain influence in a country that emerged from its body in 1971.

Khaleda Zia's governments historically maintained closer ties with Pakistan than Hasina's administrations. With her son now poised to lead, analysts expect those links to deepen further.

- The extradition 

For Modi, the BNP's extradition demand presents an agonizing dilemma with no obvious exit.

Under the 2013 India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty, New Delhi has legal grounds to refuse -- Article 6 allows denial if the offense is deemed "political in nature". India could also seek assurances that the death penalty would not be carried out, a standard provision in extradition agreements.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has previously signaled India's position, stating that Hasina came to Delhi "under certain circumstances" and her future is "something which she has to make up her mind" about.

But diplomatic observers note that handing over of Hasina would also be politically devastating for Modi's government domestically.

Yet refusing the demand risks confirming Bangladeshi suspicions that India prioritizes its relationship with the ousted Awami League over respect for Bangladesh's sovereignty and judicial processes.

- Beyond Hasina 

The BNP's election manifesto, released ahead of the vote, calls for building relations with neighboring countries based on "equality, mutual respect and shared development goals". It pledges to pursue a "Bangladesh First" foreign policy focused on economic interests.

But the manifesto also contains provisions widely interpreted as targeting long-standing India-Bangladesh friction points --pledging to secure a "fair share of water" from trans-boundary rivers, including the Teesta, and promising "strong measures" to prevent border killings. As Indian soldiers are killing Bangladeshis in the border areas. 

Yet the extradition demand now formally on the table leaves little room for ambiguity. The BNP has made Hasina's return a test of India's respect for Bangladeshi sovereignty that would put New Delhi in big trouble.