By Mashal Khan

 The second round of Pakistan–Afghan Taliban peace talks in Istanbul has entered a critical stage amid growing signs of internal divisions within the Taliban leadership and allegations of external interference that threaten to derail progress toward curbing cross-border militancy.

The latest round of discussions began roughly a week after earlier negotiations in Qatar and has now spanned three intensive days. According to well-placed security sources, talks on the first day stretched 19 hours, the second 11, and the third 18 — underscoring the complexity of issues at stake.

Pakistan’s core demand throughout the dialogue has remained consistent: that the Taliban regime in Kabul take concrete and verifiable steps to prevent its territory from being used by terrorist  groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which Islamabad blames for a surge in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan’s border regions.

Sources familiar with the talks told The South Asia Times that in several sessions the Afghan Taliban delegation initially agreed to Pakistan’s “logical and evidence-based” proposals, especially in the presence of host nations Qatar and Turkey. Yet, on at least three occasions when discussions approached a potential agreement, the delegation withdrew its consent at the last moment — reportedly after consulting Kabul.

“These repeated reversals clearly indicate that the delegation is acting on instructions from Kabul,” one official source said. “Every time an understanding is reached, the decision is overturned within hours.”

Despite these setbacks, Pakistani negotiators — at the request of the host countries — have opted to continue the dialogue, portraying their stance as evidence of “sincerity and commitment” to regional peace. Islamabad maintains that cooperation between the two neighbors is essential not only for bilateral stability but also for wider regional and global security.

Diplomatic observers say the Istanbul process is unfolding against a backdrop of escalating border tensions and an uptick in militant activity. Over the past two months, several deadly attacks in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces have been carried out by TTP and BLA terrorist group based in Afghanistan.

Islamabad has repeatedly pressed Kabul to act against such networks, warning that continued inaction could strain relations further.

However, Afghan Taliban refrained from actions against TTP and BLA.

According to sources in Kabul and Islamabad, internal divisions within the Taliban government — between factions based in Kabul and those in Kandahar — are also complicating efforts to reach consensus. Some senior figures are said to favor to resolve issues with Pakistan and curbing militant activity, while others reportedly resist such moves, fearing it would weaken the Taliban’s domestic standing among hard-line groups if they take actions against TTP.

- UN warning 

Last year the United Nations Security Council report  warned that Afghanistan continues to serve as a “permissive environment” for a wide range of terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), raising serious concerns about regional stability in Central and South Asia.

The report, presented in July 2024, highlighted that despite the Taliban’s public commitments to prevent Afghan soil from being used for terrorism, numerous extremist organizations are not only operating freely but also collaborating across borders. According to the UN, the Taliban’s de facto authorities in Kabul have failed to take decisive action against these groups — some of which are allegedly being supported or tolerated by powerful factions within the regime.

ISIL-Khorasan (ISIL-K) remains the most potent transnational threat, maintaining roughly 2,000 fighters scattered across northern and northeastern Afghanistan. The group, led by Sanaullah Ghafari, continues to recruit from Central Asian states and indoctrinate children as young as 14 in suicide training camps. The report also noted the growing presence of female supporters among ISIL-K ranks, many of whom are wives of Central Asian militants attempting to cross borders.

The UN assessment further revealed that TTP, with an estimated 6,000 fighters, enjoys “substantial logistical and operational support” from the Taliban authorities. The report stated that despite some internal divisions within the Taliban about their relationship with TTP, the group remains operationally active, carrying out deadly attacks in Pakistan’s border regions and training operatives in Balochistan.

Alarmingly, Member States also reported coordination between the TTP and the BLA in southern Afghanistan, where both groups allegedly share training camps in areas like Walikot and Shorabak, with Al-Qaeda providing ideological and weapons training.

The report also mentioned that Al-Qaeda maintains a limited but significant presence in Afghanistan, concentrated in Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces. Several new training sites were identified, some of which are believed to train both Al-Qaeda and TTP operatives.

In addition, the UN noted that extremist outfits such as Jamaat Ansarullah, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Party (ETIM/TIP) are operating under the Taliban’s watch, with some even integrated into law enforcement and army units. The ETIM/TIP, which seeks to “return to Xinjiang for jihad,” reportedly coordinated with Taliban officials in Kabul and Syrian factions to facilitate the movement of foreign fighters.

The findings reinforce growing international fears that Afghanistan is once again turning into a sanctuary for transnational terrorism. Analysts warn that the Taliban’s reluctance — or refusal — to act against groups like TTP and BLA risks destabilizing not only Pakistan’s western border but also the broader region.

In light of recent cross-border violence and the faltering Istanbul peace talks between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, the UN report adds weight to Islamabad’s longstanding concerns that terrorist outfits are being allowed to regroup and operate freely from Afghan soil — threatening the fragile peace and security of the entire region.