By Manahil Jaffer

The India-Bangladesh relationship, historically marked by periods of cooperation and conflict, has witnessed significant transformations under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's regime. Modi's tenure has seen a deliberate attempt to strengthen ties with Bangladesh, leveraging historical connections, economic partnerships, and strategic imperatives. This analysis critically analyzes the multifaceted dynamics of the India-Bangladesh relationship under Modi's new regime, examining the progress made, the challenges faced, and the underlying factors influencing bilateral ties.

Historical Context and Foundation

The India-Bangladesh relationship has deep historical roots, dating back to the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 when India played a pivotal role in its independence from Pakistan. This historical bond has often been the bedrock of bilateral relations. However, the relationship has not been without its challenges, including border disputes, water-sharing issues, and political fluctuations in both countries. Understanding this context is crucial to appreciating the changes and continuities under Modi's regime.

Modi's Strategic Outreach

Since coming to power in 2014, Modi has emphasized a "Neighborhood First" policy, with Bangladesh being a key focus. Modi's strategic outreach is characterized by high-level visits and diplomatic engagements, underscoring the importance of strong diplomatic ties. His visits to Bangladesh and reciprocal visits by Bangladeshi leaders have not only symbolized goodwill but also resulted in tangible agreements, such as the resolution of the long-standing Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in 2015, which resolved border enclaves and improved border management.
Economic cooperation between the two countries has seen a significant boost, with India emerging as one of Bangladesh's largest trading partners in South Asia. Bilateral trade has been facilitated by agreements aimed at reducing trade barriers and improving connectivity. The signing of various Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and transportation has further solidified economic cooperation, benefiting both nations.
Modi's regime has prioritized enhancing connectivity with Bangladesh through various projects. These include the revival of old railway links and the construction of new ones, as well as initiatives like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and the Maitree Express train service. These projects aim to foster closer economic integration and enhance people-to-people contact, reinforcing the strong bond between the two countries.
Strategic Imperatives
Several strategic imperatives drive Modi's outreach to Bangladesh. Firstly, Bangladesh's strategic location makes it a crucial partner for India in maintaining regional stability. Strengthening ties with Bangladesh aligns with India's broader strategy to counterbalance China's expanding influence in South Asia. Bangladesh plays a significant role in regional organizations such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), further emphasizing its importance.
Security cooperation has been a key focus, particularly in countering terrorism and insurgency. Both countries have collaborated to address cross-border terrorism and insurgent activities, thereby enhancing mutual security. This partnership has led to better intelligence sharing, joint operations, and a more secure border.
Economically, Bangladesh's impressive growth presents numerous opportunities for Indian businesses. Sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and information technology offer substantial potential for collaboration. Indian investment in Bangladesh and bilateral trade agreements are set to benefit both economies, fostering economic interdependence and growth. This economic cooperation not only strengthens bilateral ties but also contributes to the overall stability and prosperity of the region.

Challenges and Contentions

Despite the positive trajectory, several challenges continue to affect the India-Bangladesh relationship. One major issue is the sharing of transboundary rivers, particularly the Teesta River. This has been a contentious topic, with numerous discussions failing to reach a final resolution. Water sharing is a sensitive matter, significantly impacting agriculture and livelihoods in both countries, necessitating a cooperative and equitable solution. Border management also poses challenges, even after the resolution of many longstanding disputes through the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA). Incidents of border violence and illegal immigration continue to strain relations. Effective border management requires sustained cooperation, enhanced infrastructure, and mutual trust to ensure security and stability. Trade imbalances are another persistent issue. Despite increasing economic cooperation, Bangladesh frequently raises concerns about trade barriers and non-tariff barriers imposed by India. Addressing these imbalances is crucial for fostering a balanced and mutually beneficial economic relationship. Ensuring fair and equitable trade practices will help build stronger economic ties. The Rohingya refugee crisis adds another layer of complexity to bilateral relations. While India has provided humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh in managing the influx of Rohingya refugees, differing approaches towards the crisis have occasionally caused friction. Navigating this humanitarian issue requires empathy, coordinated efforts, and a shared commitment to finding a sustainable solution. These challenges underscore the need for continued dialogue, cooperation, and mutual understanding to ensure that the India-Bangladesh relationship remains on a positive path.

Underlying Factors Influencing Bilateral Ties

Several underlying factors have significantly shaped the India-Bangladesh relationship under Modi's regime. The political will and leadership of both countries have been pivotal. The personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has demonstrated a strong commitment to deepening bilateral ties. This close relationship has translated into concrete actions and agreements, fostering stronger cooperation across various sectors.
Public perception and soft power also play crucial roles in bilateral relations. Cultural ties and public sentiments are reinforced through initiatives like the celebration of Mujib Borsho, commemorating the birth centenary of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Such initiatives have strengthened cultural bonds between the two nations. However, managing public perception remains a challenge, especially in the context of sensitive issues like border incidents and water disputes.
Besides, external influences, particularly from China, have significant implications for India-Bangladesh relations. China's growing economic and strategic presence in Bangladesh cannot be ignored. While Bangladesh seeks to balance its relations with both India and China, India's approach under Modi has been to strengthen bilateral ties to counterbalance China's influence. This strategic balancing act is crucial for maintaining regional stability and ensuring that India remains a key partner for Bangladesh amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Future Prospects

The India-Bangladesh relationship under Modi's new regime has seen significant progress, marked by enhanced economic cooperation, strategic alignment, and diplomatic engagements. The resolution of historical issues like the LBA and the emphasis on connectivity projects are notable achievements. However, challenges such as water-sharing disputes, border management, and trade imbalances require continued attention and dialogue.
Looking ahead, sustaining the momentum in bilateral relations will depend on addressing these challenges through mutual trust and cooperation. The commitment of both leaders to a shared vision of prosperity and stability will be crucial. Additionally, managing external influences and leveraging soft power through cultural and people-to-people ties will play a vital role in shaping the future trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations. While Modi's regime has brought about a positive shift in the India-Bangladesh relationship, a nuanced and multifaceted approach is essential to navigate the complexities and realize the full potential of this vital partnership.