By The South Asia Times

ISLAMABAD — India cannot abruptly stop the flow of the Indus River or completely divert its tributaries, but it can manipulate water releases through its dam operations, posing a serious threat to Pakistan’s agriculture and water security, according to the Ecological Threat Report 2025 released by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), according to daily Dawn.

The report warns that Pakistan’s limited storage capacity — only enough to hold about 30 days of Indus flow — leaves it dangerously exposed to even small, temporary disruptions. Such variations, particularly during critical crop seasons, could severely impact the country’s agriculture, which depends on the Indus Basin for nearly 80 percent of its irrigation needs.

“India’s dams on the western rivers are run-of-the-river projects with minimal storage,” the report notes, meaning New Delhi currently lacks the infrastructure to “turn off” river flows completely. However, within its existing technical capacity, India could still manipulate timing and volume — potentially creating water shortages at key moments for Pakistan’s farmers.

The IEP report also linked growing regional tensions in South Asia and the Middle East to the future of water diplomacy surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark 1960 accord that has survived wars and political upheavals between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

Following the recent Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defense treaty, the report suggests Riyadh would likely back Islamabad in any confrontation with India, helping to preserve the Indus agreement by discouraging New Delhi from using water as leverage.

However, India’s suspension of the IWT earlier this year raised international alarm, with China stepping up support for Pakistan. In May, Beijing’s state media highlighted the acceleration of Pakistan’s Mohmand Dam project, describing it as a show of solidarity amid India’s “water threats.”

Tensions escalated further when India conducted “reservoir flushing” operations at its Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River without prior notification — a move that caused parts of Punjab to briefly run dry before sudden, sediment-filled torrents were released downstream.

The report warns that India’s unilateral actions, if continued, could undermine one of South Asia’s most enduring mechanisms for peace. “While the IWT has long served as a safety valve for grievances,” it concludes, “its erosion risks pushing the two countries closer to conflict over one of their most vital shared resources — water.”