By The South Asia Times 

WASHINGTON - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that Iran could have little or no oil left available for international trade within weeks, as Washington’s economic pressure campaign adds to an already severe crisis facing the Iranian economy.

Bessent made the assessment in an interview with Fox News, according to the New York Post, saying Iran had about 15 million barrels of oil still at sea, most of it destined for China. He said the remaining shipments could represent Iran’s final significant oil deliveries if current restrictions remain in place.

“I am confident, given that there’s only 15 million more barrels of Iranian oil on the water, that Iran will have nothing left to trade for anything,” Bessent said, according to the New York Post.

He predicted that the remaining oil could reach China within about two weeks and argued that the resulting economic pressure could push Tehran toward a new agreement with Washington.

- Iran's economy already under severe pressure

The warning comes as Iran's economy is already experiencing a deep deterioration.

The International Monetary Fund projects Iran's economy will contract by 5.4% in 2026, while consumer prices are projected to rise by 68.9%.

Iran's currency has also suffered a dramatic decline. The Associated Press reported that the rial fell to more than 2.5 million rials per US dollar on Sept. 29, a record low, reflecting mounting economic and geopolitical pressures.

The World Bank says Iran's economy is facing mounting pressure from sanctions, conflict, water and energy shortages and disruptions to economic activity. It estimates that Iran's GDP contracted by 2.7% during the Iranian year ending March 20, 2026.

Oil remains particularly important to Iran's finances. Although Iran has a relatively diversified economy compared with some oil exporters, the World Bank says economic activity and government revenues remain dependent on oil revenues and have therefore been volatile.

U.S. pressure targets Iran's oil trade

Bessent's comments followed months of escalating U.S. economic pressure on Tehran.

The New York Post reported that the Trump administration's “Operation Economic Outcast” has sought to restrict Iran's ability to sell oil and conduct international trade. Bessent argued that the pressure was contributing to Tehran's desire to reach an agreement with Washington.

The U.S. and Iran have also been engaged in discussions over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil-shipping route. Reuters reported last month that the two sides were discussing a possible phased arrangement involving the reopening of the waterway and easing of U.S. economic restrictions.

Iran's ability to continue exporting crude is particularly important because the country relies heavily on energy revenues to generate foreign currency.

The World Bank has warned that disruptions to Iran's oil exports and trade routes could further weaken economic activity, while intensified sanctions and conflict are already weighing on investment and production.

The pressure on Iran is also affecting global energy markets. Brent crude rose sharply in September amid uncertainty surrounding Gulf shipping and the Strait of Hormuz, with Reuters reporting that Brent gained about 14% during the month.

For Iran, the combination of declining currency value, very high inflation, economic contraction, sanctions and restrictions on oil exports presents a major economic challenge.

Bessent's prediction that Iran could soon have “nothing left to trade” is a U.S. government assessment  

Nevertheless, international economic data indicate that Iran is already facing substantial economic stress, while negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain focused on sanctions, oil exports and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.