Trump renews threat of strikes on Iran as US midterm elections approach
By The South Asia Times
WASHINGTON - US President Donald Trump has renewed his threat of military action against Iran, raising questions about the possibility of renewed strikes, public opposition to the war and Congress's ability to constrain further escalation, Pakistan's English-language newspaper Dawn reported.
Trump made the remarks at a rally in Florida on Friday, warning that the United States could launch another military operation against Iran.
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said, referring to the US military operation against Iran, without providing details about the timing of any potential action, according to Dawn.
The remarks came amid reports that US and Israeli military officials had prepared options for renewed joint strikes against Iran, potentially after the November 3 midterm elections.
An ABC News report published on Thursday cited two Israeli sources familiar with the planning as saying that renewed strikes would most likely take place after the elections.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, however, told ABC News that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms.
The reports indicate that further military action is being considered, but there has been no confirmation that Trump has ordered a new attack. Diplomatic negotiations remain another possible path forward.
- War puts pressure on Trump ahead of elections
The renewed threats come as the administration faces growing public dissatisfaction with the conflict, particularly over rising fuel prices and concerns about American troops being wounded or killed.
According to Dawn, opinion polls suggest that the war could become a significant issue in the upcoming congressional elections, potentially complicating Trump's political position as voters prepare to elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 among 5,062 US adults found that 65% disapproved of Trump's handling of the military action against Iran, while 33% approved.
The survey also found that 73% of respondents were extremely or very concerned about higher fuel prices, while 71% expressed similar concerns about American troops being wounded or killed.
Nearly half of those surveyed, 47%, expected the military action to continue for more than another year.
A separate poll by the Associated Press and NORC, published on October 22, found that roughly seven in 10 registered voters wanted the next Congress to make ending the Iran war a top priority.
About eight in 10 respondents similarly prioritised reducing the cost of living.
The findings suggest that the conflict's economic consequences and potential duration could influence voters' decisions, although opposition to Trump's handling of the war does not necessarily indicate rejection of every possible military operation.
- Trump faces difficult strategic choices
In an analysis published on October 23, James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, identified three broad options for Trump: escalating the conflict, negotiating with Tehran or maintaining the current position.
“All three options have substantial downsides and a questionable likelihood of succeeding,” Lindsay wrote, according to Dawn.
Renewed attacks could increase military pressure on Iran but risk prolonging the conflict without producing a lasting political settlement.
Negotiations would require Washington and Tehran to overcome their differences, while maintaining the current position could leave the confrontation unresolved.
Andrew Payne, research director for Europe, Russia and the Americas at Chatham House, argued in an October 15 analysis that foreign policy could play an unusually prominent role in the US midterm elections.
The war's economic consequences, particularly the cost of living and fuel prices, could influence voters who might otherwise focus primarily on domestic issues.
- Can Congress limit further military action?
Congress has several mechanisms to scrutinise military operations and influence the administration's decisions, including oversight hearings, funding restrictions and the War Powers Resolution.
The resolution requires the president to notify Congress in certain circumstances when US forces enter hostilities and establishes procedures for lawmakers to consider whether military action should continue.
Congress could also use its control over federal spending to restrict or condition funding for an expanded military campaign, potentially increasing the political cost of a prolonged war.
However, the effectiveness of congressional pressure would depend partly on whether Republicans remain united behind Trump.
If some Republican lawmakers join Democrats in challenging the administration's approach, the president could face greater scrutiny of the war's objectives, costs and exit strategy.
Even so, congressional opposition would not automatically prevent Trump from ordering another strike, and the practical limits on presidential military authority could become a subject of renewed political and legal debate.
- November elections could shape the next phase
The immediate question is whether Trump will maintain his stated position against attacking Iran before the November 3 elections.
The longer-term issue is whether the election results will change the political constraints on his decisions.
A shift in control of either chamber of Congress could affect oversight, military funding and debates over the administration's strategy, although it would not automatically rule out further US military action.
For now, Trump's remarks and reports of renewed US-Israeli military planning have kept the prospect of further strikes alive.
However, neither the president's comments nor the reported preparations establish that an attack has been scheduled.
Whether mounting public dissatisfaction, economic pressures and congressional scrutiny will push Washington towards negotiations with Tehran or renewed military action remains uncertain.