By The South Asia Times

ISLAMABAD / WASHINGTON -  After weeks of escalating threats, rejected peace offers, and a dramatic rise in global energy prices, US President Donald Trump finds himself in a familiar position --  facing a defiant Iran that refuses to bend. But with his Tuesday deadline looming and military options carrying catastrophic risks, analysts say Trump has run out of tactics -- and Pakistan has become his last hope.

Trump's entire playbook has failed. Threats of annihilation have been met with Iranian defiance. Offers of peace have been repeatedly rejected. Sanctions have already squeezed Tehran to the limit. And now, with explosions rocking Iran's Kharg Island and gas prices surging 39% since the start of the war, the US president is in trouble.

"Trump has apparently lost his temper," said a regional analyst familiar with the back-channel negotiations. "His threats, his offers, everything has failed to bring Iran to the table. Pakistan is the only hope now."

Trump's frustration has boiled over into increasingly bellicose rhetoric. The US president warned that Iran could be "taken out in one night," adding that the action "might" take place Tuesday -- the deadline he set for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

He has reiterated threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, claiming the Iranian people would be "willing to suffer" if it ultimately secured their freedom, according to a CNN report.

Tehran has warned that the consequences of such attacks will stretch far beyond the region, threatening a wider war that could engulf the Gulf states.

On March 30, Trump posted on social media that the US could destroy "Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island." On Tuesday, explosions were reported on Kharg Island -- the hub from which almost all of Iran's oil is exported, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency.

The tensions are no longer confined to rhetoric. Railway activity in one Iranian city has been suspended after Israel issued a warning on X -- a platform blocked inside Iran -- advising citizens not to use trains, state media reported.

Meanwhile, in Istanbul, one assailant was killed and two were injured in an attack near the Israeli consulate, with two police officers sustaining minor injuries, according to a local official. The incident added to the sense of a region spiraling toward chaos.

At home, Trump faces mounting political pressure. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the United States edged up another 2 cents Tuesday, reaching $4.14, according to AAA. Prices have now risen 39% since the start of the war with Iran -- a statistic that could haunt Trump at the polls.

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has matched Trump's threats with defiance and warnings of his own.

In a post on X, Araghchi accused "Israeli-U.S. aggressors" of bombing what he called the "MIT of Iran" -- a reference to attacks on Iranian universities and scientific facilities.

"Israel-U.S. have bombed our Bushehr plant four times now," Araghchi wrote. "Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran."

He accused Western media of misrepresenting Iran's position. But in a significant departure from Tehran's usual posture, Araghchi expressed deep gratitude toward one country: Pakistan.

"Iran's position is being misrepresented by U.S. media," Araghchi wrote on weekend. "We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts and have never refused to go to Islamabad. What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us."

He ended his post with the Urdu phrase "پاکستان زنده باد" (Long Live Pakistan) -- a remarkable gesture from a senior Iranian official toward a neighboring country that has maintained close ties with both Tehran and Washington.

- How Pakistan Became the Last Hope for Trump

So how did Pakistan emerge as the unlikely mediator in one of the world's most intractable conflicts?

For weeks, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar has been engaged in a diplomatic blitz, speaking with counterparts from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Japan, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Egypt. Sources say the US and Iran have exchanged peace plans through Pakistani channels, and both sides are preparing for a direct meeting in Islamabad.

Several factors make Pakistan uniquely positioned to mediate:

• Geographic proximity: Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran.

• Trusted relationships: Islamabad has maintained working ties with both Washington and Tehran for decades, even as those relationships have faced strains.

• Nuclear credibility: As a nuclear-armed state, Pakistan carries diplomatic weight.

• Desperation: With all other options exhausted, both the US and Iran are looking for a face-saving exit.

   

- What Iran Really Wants

Analysts say Iran's position has been consistently mischaracterized in Western media. Tehran is not seeking endless war or nuclear escalation. What Iran wants, according to Araghchi's own words, is "a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us."

Iran has never refused to go to Islamabad, Araghchi said. The sticking point has been the terms of any agreement. Tehran wants guarantees that any deal will be permanent, not another temporary arrangement that the next US administration could tear up -- as Trump himself did with the 2015 nuclear deal.

- Can Pakistan Deliver?

With Trump's deadline hours away, the world is watching Islamabad. The next 24 hours could determine whether the region descends into a wider war or whether Pakistan's quiet diplomacy can pull both sides back from the brink.

"Trump's tactics have failed," the analyst said. "Pakistan is the only hope now, the one actor that can still bring both sides together to end this war."

For now, explosions have been heard on Kharg Island, trains have stopped in one Iranian city, global oil prices are climbing, and a US president running out of patience and in frustration has set a deadline that is rapidly approaching.

But analysts say Pakistan can deliver and expected to bring both sides on table very soon.